PHNO-PNoy: MAKING PHILIPPINES A 'BREAKOUT NATION' CAN BE NOY's HISTORIC LEGACY

MAKING PHILIPPINES A 'BREAKOUT NATION' CAN BE
NOY's HISTORIC LEGACY

[PHOTO -
CATHOLIC nuns and supporters of the people's revolt greet a soldier aboard a
V-150 armored tank on Edsa in 1986. INQUIRER ARCHIVE FILE
PHOTO]
MANILA,
JULY 3,
2012 (INQUIRER) By:
Winston A. Marbella - As President Benigno Aquino closes his first 700 days in
office and begins his last 1,400 days, it has been the best of times and the
worst of times.
Going by Ruchir Sharma's economic metrics, the Philippines is on the verge of
joining the ranks of the elite group of "breakout nations," newly emerging
economies that might make it in a turbulent world.
This must have been topmost in the mind of President Aquino after a whirlwind
weeklong trip to the United States and the United Kingdom that included 42 hours
on the wing.
President Aquino brought home the bacon worth $2.5 billion, or P100 billion,
in British and American investments in the country that would mean more jobs and
more food on the table.
The President came home to a country upbeat over a resurgent 6.4 percent
first quarter growth rate that outpaced our Asean neighbors and was second only
to China's.
The good news reinforces the country's potential membership in "breakout
nations," a select group of high potential countries touted to become the new
economic miracles.
After slowing down to a 3.7 percent laggardly growth rate in 2011, the
economy surged to a 6.4 percent GDP growth in Q1 that put us ahead of our Asean
neighbors, which had consistently set the pace for us.
The normally conservative Wall Street Journal gushed that the Q1 surge
"defied most forecasts as well as the mood in the global economy."
Enthused the WSJ: "Filipinos have reasons to smile. Asia's perennial
underachiever is outperforming."
Postcards from the edge
Like most Filipinos, I have friends who toil in distant lands for various
reasons. Some of them followed closely President Aquino's talks before Filipino
communities in the US and UK. They sent me back "snapshots" of their
impressions, not in pictures but in words.
In London, the President talked mostly about the government's moral crusade
and the removal of Renato Corona as Chief Justice. The UK-based Filipinos watch
the Filipino channels almost daily, and they know all about the impeachment.
What they expected to hear was how the government was addressing their specific
concerns as OFWs, and, beyond that, the big picture of the Philippine situation.

In Los Angeles, his last stop before boarding the homeward-bound plane, Mr.
Aquino was full of details: The first quarter economic surge, the massive
infrastructure spending, housing, rice, all the sundry details, and, of course,
Mr. Corona.
As with the London crowd, the LA audience a reference to the specific
problems of overseas Filipino Americans, and the big picture about their
country's future.
In these are picture postcards from the edge, the people expect the President
to provide the big-picture context. In short, the meaning of the details.
Mr. Aquino has an excellent opportunity to do this in his forthcoming State
of the Nation Address (Sona). But only if his speechwriters don't clutter him
with the obvious details that can sufffocate his message.
And then there is the obvious temptation of gloating over the removal of
Chief Justice Renato Corona.
Historical marker
This Sona will be his third. But it is historic in more ways than one—not
only because the President will be summing up his first 700 days and crafting
his next 1400 days. It will be historic because never before in our recent
history is the nation on the cusp of a political and—if we are lucky—an economic
breakthrough.
At the time Benigno Simeon Cojuangco Aquino III was growing in his mother's
womb, the Philippine economy was second only to Japan in the whole of Asia.
Ruchir Sharma's notable book, Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the New Economic
Miracles, marks this historical episode.
Sharma recalls the good old days "back in the 1960s when the Philippines had
the second highest per capita income in Asia, behind only Japan …" He believes
we have the sound economic fundamentals to get back on track if our politicians
get it right this time.
BRIC a brac
In a 2001 paper published in 2005, Jim O'Neill popularized the acronym BRIC
(for Brazil, Russia, India, China) to represent the rising new economies at the
time. Sharma, head of the emerging markets division at Morgan Stanley, names the
Philippines as among the emerging economies he calls the Breakout Nations, the
sequel to the BRIC.
With Turkey and Indonesia, we make up TIP, poised to upstage BRIC. BRICs are
losing steam, and the breakout nations (including Nigeria and Thailand) will
speed ahead.
To Sharma, President Aquino is a good leader who is "delegating power to
competent technocrats and seems to understand what needs to be done to get the
lights back on."
But becoming a breakout nation does not come automatically. Breaking out into
sustainable growth must be "inclusive," economic jargon for growth that reaches
the poorest of the poor. Sharma notes that the country's stagnant economy had
resulted from a few family-owned conglomerate dominating the markets.
Powered by revolution
"To understand which nations will thrive and which will falter in a world
reshaped by slower growth," Sharma stresses that we must abandon our current
obsession with global macro trends and all-embracing theories. He offers instead
a more discerning, nuanced view, identifying specific factors— economic,
political, social—which will make for slow or fast growth.
Sharma believes the Philippines is ready to exceed expectations in a world
where the leading emerging nations (the BRIC) are starting to flounder with
Europe and the United States.
Sharma's thesis banks heavily on President Aquino's success: "Filipinos saw
him as an honest figure who could deliver on the Aquino mandate for change, and
they were desperate after nine years of drift and decay."
Becoming a breakout nation "could be made to happen if the third Aquino can
get the people power revolution right," Sharma says.
How nations succeed
Another big-picture context book making the rounds is Why Nations Fail: The
Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty. It is an intriguing read—for it seeks
to answer a question that has fascinated scholars for centuries: Why are some
nations rich and others poor?
Co-authors Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (Massachusetts Institute of
Technology and Harvard) demonstrate by historical sweep and anecdotal evidence
that man-made political and economic institutions underlie economic success.

The book is an ambitious attempt to explain why 1.29 billion people in the
developing world subsist on less than $1.25 a day. That includes the
Philippines.
How to explain such gaping disparities?
The bottomline, asserts the authors is: To get our economics right, we must
get our politics right. To illustrate this central point, the authors take us
through the events that led to the "Arab Spring" of discontent that is sweeping
the Middle East.
Those of us who lived through our People Power Revolution in 1986 will be
overwhelmed by a great sense of pride and a poignant déjà vu feeling.
But to reap the fruits of our own revolution we must contextualize what
happened at Edsa and apply it to breakout tasks that remain in Mr. Aquino's
agenda in the remaining four years of his presidency.
FROM MANILA STANDARD
TODAY
AQUINO TO USE 'VISUALS' IN 3RD SONA, NOT THEATRICS
By Joyce Pangco Pañares
President
Benigno Aquino III (photo), who marked his second year in office on
Saturday, will employ visuals and not theatrics for his third
State-of-the-Nation Address on July 23, deputy presidential spokeswoman Abigail
Valte said on Sunday.
"The President has no inclination for theatrics. Normally, the President
sticks to visuals and not theatrics," Valte said.
"Visuals become the default [form of presentation]. But as to what kind of
visuals, we do not know yet… The need for visuals comes more or less after the
speech has been concretized, and at this stage we are just on the fi rst draft."
Former President Joseph Estrada gave Mr. Aquino a passing grade of "seven to
eight" at the weekend.
Valte said Mr. Aquino would also be comfortable having his predecessor,
Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, in Congress to listen to his speech in
the event she was allowed to post bail. Arroyo under hospital arrest as a result
of the electoral sabotage case fi led against her. "She is under detention,"
Valte said.
"We do not know if she will ask permission from the court to personally
attend the SONA. But she is a representative of the Lower House, so her right to
be there is a given."
The Cabinet submitted the fi rst draft of Mr. Aquino's speech two weeks ago.
Presidential Communications Secretary Ramon Carandang said it would be a report
to the Filipino people on what the Aquino administration had accomplished so
far.
He was coy when asked if the ouster of Chief Justice Renato Corona would be
included in the speech. He said there would be a "long back and forth" process
until the speech was fi nalized, noting that last year's speech had 14 drafts.

"Normally, when you report on what happened in the past year, you report on
the signifi – cant accomplishment, so it is up to you to decide whether you feel
that will be included.
"Let us just wait for the draft… This is the report of the President to the
Filipino people, to our bosses. We are going to give a bit of an accomplishment
report, where we want to go looking forward.
FROM THE PHILSTAR
Little fanfare as P-Noy marks 2nd year in office
By Aurea Calica (The Philippine Star) Updated June 30, 2012 12:00
AMComments (5)


[PHOTO OF AQUINO AT 2011 SONA: Message last year-- Noynoy's message was
loud and clear. Please stop this noynoying. It does not make sense.
Peace.]
MANILA, Philippines - There will hardly be any fanfare as President Aquino
marks his second year in office today but Malacañang released excerpts of a book
saying the Chief Executive was leading the Philippines to become the next "tiger
economy."
In his book "Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of Next Economic Miracles," Ruchir
Sharma wrote that "at long last the Philippines is on the road to becoming part
of the elite group of tiger economies" primarily due to the leadership of its
new president.
Deputy presidential spokesperson Abigail Valte said there were no scheduled
activities for today unlike last year when the President had a town hall-like
meeting to discuss what he had done so far.
Valte and presidential spokesman Edwin Lacierda earlier said the President
would discuss his achievements and his plans for the country during his State of
the Nation Address on July 23.
But the Palace and even the President himself had been citing various good
news as the administration marked its second year, including improved social
services, more infrastructure projects and better economy.
Yesterday, Malacañang released Sharma's observations in his book, starting
with the title: "The Philippines is no longer a joke."
"Now at long last, the Philippines looks poised to resume a period of strong
growth. The president, Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino III, probably has enough support,
and looks likely to generate just enough reform momentum, to get the job done.
The Aquino name is still virtually synonymous with the promise of change,"
Sharma said.
Sharma said Aquino was originally dismissed in foreign circles as an
unimpressive 51-year-old bachelor who had lived most of his life with his mother
and had not made much of a mark in a low-profile career as a Philippine senator.

"However, Filipinos saw him as an honest figure who could deliver on the
Aquino mandate for change and they were desperate after nine years of drift and
decay under outgoing president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo," Sharma said, adding
that following his mother Corazon's death in 2009, Aquino won the presidency on
a wave of public sympathy.
"His victory margin was unprecedented and his task daunting at a time when it
seemed like the whole country was in disrepair," Sharma said.
Officials have been citing foreign reports noting that the Philippines can be
resilient amid the global financial crisis due to the situation in Europe and
the United States.
The Palace cited a Wall Street Journal report saying only four economies were
projected to weather the European economic and financial crisis – Australia,
China, Indonesia and the Philippines.
"The Philippines is better prepared than in the past to withstand a downturn
with a stronger government balance sheet and a robust domestic economy. Foreign
reserves are high enough to fight capital flight," the WSJ said.
The WSJ said other countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam
would feel the brunt of the euro meltdown due to their exposure to European
banks and trade as well as investments.
Protest
Meanwhile, labor center Kilusang Mayo Uno yesterday condemned
President Aquino for allegedly making the condition of workers and the poor even
worse on his second year of presidency.
KMU marched with other organizations under the umbrella group Bagong
Alyansang Makabayan to Mendiola, citing the acronym "P-NOY" as " Pahirap,
Nanlilinlang, Oo nang oo sa Kano, and Yumuyurak sa karapatan."
"Workers' wages are more depressed than before, contractual employment is
more rampant, and joblessness is more widespread. Workers do not have anything
to celebrate after Aquino's two years in power," said Elmer Labog, KMU chairman.

"Aquino has even implemented major policies that will further press down the
value of the country's labor. He has been a pest to workers and a blessing to
big capitalists," he added.
KMU cited the two-tiered wage system which means a wage cut and wage freeze
for workers, the Labor Department's Order No. 18-A Series of 2011 which
legitimizes contractual employment, and the K+12 program in education which will
confine the youth to contractual employment.
"He has repeatedly deceived the people in claiming that he is going after
Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo for her grave crimes. Two years into his (Aquino's)
term, Arroyo may post bail to leave her comfortable hospital arrest," Labog
said.
Labog said the Aquino government has failed to seek the conviction and
jailing of the former president.
"It was quick in ousting chief justice Renato Corona but excruciatingly slow
in going after Arroyo," he said.
The labor center also slammed the President for fast-tracking the return of
US bases into the country and for violating human rights.
Labog said Aquino has used China's assertive statements and actions to try to
justify intensified US military intervention in the country.
He has also magnified the US' promise of support to sidetrack the danger to
the lives and livelihood of Filipinos and the insult to national sovereignty
brought about by greater US military presence, Labog said.
"We vow to hold even bigger protests on the President's third State of the
Nation Address in which we expect him to weave more lies about the country."
- With Sandy Araneta [PHNO: READ REVIEW OF THE BOOK
'BREAKOUT NATIONS' AT THE OPINION SECTION]


Chief News Editor: Sol Jose Vanzi
© Copyright, 2012 by PHILIPPINE HEADLINE NEWS ONLINE
All
rights reserved




PHILIPPINE
HEADLINE NEWS ONLINE [PHNO] WEBSITE


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