2011
MANILA, JANUARY 1, 2012
(STANDARD) It could have been worse. In 2011 we impeached
two national officials within one year. The first was the ombudsman; the second
was the chief justice.
In the first instance, there were at least the customary "deliberations" and
"show of hands" that allow impeachments —essentially a political process—to take
on the form of a quasi-judicial exercise. In the second, while it involved the
country's chief magistrate, there was not even that pretension; there was only
the act of transmitting the Articles of Impeachment from one chamber of Congress
to another.
In 2011 we did our politics, progressing throughout the year with incremental
loss in shame and piety. Still, it could have been worse.
In the same year, Egypt and Libya had to do politics at gunpoint. Egypt
ousted its president, Hosni Mubarak. Libya ended Muammar Gaddafi's
reign—terminally.
In the Philippines, only committee chairmanships and "pork"— not lives—were
lost in 2011 alongside the shifts in political fortunes. A former President lost
her freedom too, though that did not matter so much—she was unpopular; the
incumbent President had an approval rating in the high 70s. For most of 2011,
public opinion and not questions of law forged policy—Mr. President pretty much
did as he wanted.
There were several storms all throughout the year, causing damage and
claiming lives, but it could have been worse. The magnitude 8.9 earthquake that
hit Japan in May caused as much devastation. The difference is that the Japanese
now have nuclear contamination to worry about while we do not. The country's
only nuclear power plant has been mothballed—built, spent for, but never
operated—since the 80s.
This is us proving a point: that if one strained hard enough and to the point
of absurdity, there will always be a "brighter side" to things. The truth,
however, is that 2011 did not have so many— there were no sterling performances
from our leaders; there was just too much politicking; the government's version
of "disaster risk reduction and management" was a two-pronged system of giving
donations and offering prayers.
They may take credit, but it is not what our leaders did that gives us hope
for 2012. It is how Filipinos have remained resilient despite the political
turmoil of previous years that should inspire optimism.
In August 2011, braving the wind, rain and flood, 12 year-old Janella Lelis
carried the Philippine flag to safety at the height of typhoon Juaning. That
image—not those of congressmen grandstanding to impeach an ombdusman or
congregating to impeach the chief justice; not that of a President taking credit
for climate change readiness and belatedly overseeing calamity relief
distribution—should inspire optimism this year.
There is hope not because of Mr. Aquino et al. There is hope for 2012 because
of Lelis and her kind, despite Mr. Aquino and his kind.
OPINION
The economy in 2011 by Christian Cardiente and
Karl Allan Barlaan
As the country reeled from destructive typhoons and surges of political
storms in 2011, it struggled weathering yet another tempest—that of a continuing
worldwide economic storm. An unwilling participant that is both dependent and
influenced by how other larger economies behave, the country had no choice but
to muster its limited resources and withstand a global economic turmoil
characterized by Eurozone's debt crisis, unrest in the Middle East, and the
fragile recovery of the United States.
For the first nine months of 2011, the Philippines posted a dismal economic
growth rate of 3.6 percent; significantly lower than the government's revised
2011 target of at least 4.5 percent, and way below the sustained, long-term goal
of 7 to 8 percent yearly increase in national output (gross domestic product).
The domestic economy could have fared better, according to experts, sans the
government's unlikely policy response of massive underspending. Unable to take
advantage of the budget's early approval by the Congress, the Aquino
administration was either over-cautious in utilizing approved funds for various
programs (even as it employed zero-based budgeting), or simply incompetent to
execute its projects, according to critics.
While the government was quick to point to external influences as
contributory factors to the country's lackluster economic performance; numerous
experts, financial institutions, the finance department, and even Aquino
political allies have all agreed that the government's tight spending,
especially in infrastructure, had compounded the effects of the global economic
slowdown instead.
And by just how much programmed funds was unspent? About P142 billion for
infrastructure and capital outlays out of the programmed P242 billion budget, as
of end 0f October.
Despite the Aquino administration's frantic effort to boost its last quarter
spending along with the introduction of P72 - P92 billion stimulus package,
analysts claim that hopes are virtually nil for the country's GDP to even
increase by 4 percent this year. In fact, the International Monetary Fund
further lowered its Philippines GDP forecast to 3.7 percent from an initial
forecast of 4.7 percent.
For one, the government will be hard-pressed to meet even half of the P300
billion programmed deficit for 2011. State data showed that from January to
November 2011, the deficit amounted to P96.25 billion, less than half of prior
year's deficit level and under 30 percent of the P300 billion programmed
deficit. Analysts believed that the programmed deficit could not be attained,
even if it was just revised and further lowered to P260 billion.
Actual government expenditure for the last 11 months, net of interest
payments, amounted to P1.35 trillion, P365 billion short of the programmed
P1.711 trillion expenditure for 2011. How and where will the government spend
the P365 billion, plus portion of the P72 billion stimulus fund, with only a
month to go?
Importance of economic growth
Economic growth refers to sustained increase in national production, an
expansion in resources, output, and goods. The higher the production of an
economy, the better it is for everyone else since growth increases the capacity
of the people "to enjoy material fruits of progress."
Sustained economic growth is imperative since it fuels economic development;
a broader and more complex process involving an expansive range of improvements
in economic and social conditions, as well as strengthening of institutions.
An economy is developing when there is "sustained rise of per capita output,
sustained patterns of technological progress, sustained increase in net capital
stock, sustained increase in real wages, high rate of change in economic
structure, and positive transformation in social and other non-economic
factors."
Economic growth and development generally mean a step forward, higher living
standard, better quality of life, or for most Filipinos, an escape out of
poverty.
Conversely, people dread the words "deceleration, economic slowdown, or
recession"—which may result in the contraction of the economy resulting to less
opportunities, lower income, business closures, and loss of jobs, among others.
In our case and for the first quarter of 2011, the Philippines only recorded
a 4.9 percent GDP growth compared to 8.4 percent last year. The economy
continued to decelerate the following quarter, posting a 3.4 percent growth
which was "less than half the booming 8.9 percent growth in 2010," an election
year.
The country's economy further decelerated to post a 3.2 percent growth for
the third quarter; compared to 7.3 percent in 2010. The government reported that
"construction continued to suffer from the much delayed implementation of the
public-private partnership program while export of goods really got hit by the
global crisis, posting a double digit decline for the first time since the
second quarter of 2009."
With the downward trend in quarterly growth for 2011, experts see a
substantial decline from last year's economic performance where "the domestic
economy sizzled to its highest annual GDP growth in the post Marcos era of 7.3
percent in 2010," and which prompted both the Arroyo and Aquino administrations
to claim credit for such feat.
Unlike in 2010 though, neither finger-pointing for missed targets nor a
tug-of-war for credits for this year will take place. Eighteen months into
power, the Aquino administration is solely responsible for the country's 2011
full year economic performance, where gains or losses could only be attributed
to the President's policies and able leadership, or lack thereof.
Development plan
In the absence of an economic roadmap early in his term, the President,
during his first state of the nation address, said there will be no fund wastage
through zero-based budgeting. Meanwhile, local and national infrastructures will
be financed through public-private partnerships, and business processes will be
streamlined leading to job creation.
By the end of March 2011, the country's roadmap, Philippine Development Plan
2011-2016 was finally adopted.
According to socio-economic planning secretary Cayetano Paderanga Jr., "the
Plan is the national blueprint for inclusive growth that is high and sustained,
generates massive employment and significantly reduces poverty." Also, the plan
envisions an inclusive yearly growth of 7-8% for at least 6 years, while
achieving the millennium development goals in the process.
It focused on: (a) boosting competitiveness to generate employment; (b)
improving access to financing; (c) investing massively in physical
infrastructure; (d) promoting transparent and responsive governance; and (e)
developing human resources through improved social services.
Some programs include additional support to small businesses, pocket open
skies policy, public-private partnerships, disaster reduction and risk
management, and the expansion of the conditional cash transfer program or CCT,
among others.
What has been achieved?
In July, the President cited a Social Weather Stations second-quarter survey
which registered a decline in the number of "hungry" Filipinos. "Self-rated
hunger has gone down from 20.5% in March to 15.1% this June—equivalent to a
million Filipino families who used to go hungry, but who now say they eat
properly every day," said the President.
But the same survey the following quarter showed more Filipinos got poorer
and hungrier each day. The survey revealed that half of the country's families
saw themselves as poor; with one in every five families experiencing hunger
prior to the more recent survey period.
Meanwhile, the impact of the Aquino administration's CCT program on poverty
reduction has yet to be fully realized. With 2.3 million targeted households for
2011, the Social Welfare department is confident its P23 billion social services
investment more than pays off, soon.
Still, the Philippines is behind by six years in eradicating extreme hunger;
and needs another eight years to cut poverty by half among the 2009 population,
according to the National Statistical Coordination Board.
Despite the failure of the public-private partnerships program to take off
and generate the much-needed jobs, the jobs market recorded a decline in
unemployment generally for the most of the year compared to the same period of
last year. Some economists contend that the creation of two million new jobs and
decline of unemployment in October 2011 relative to last year was due to an
increase in the number of unpaid family workers, though.
In a recent TV interview, President Aquino also claimed that his
administration was able to generate about P42 billion in savings: P23 billion
from interest payments as a result of the country's credit rating upgrade; P7.7
billion from rice importation; and P6 billion from public works infrastructure
projects. The savings was used to augment the calamity fund for typhoon Sendong
victims, as well as Christmas bonus of state workers, he said.
Bottom line, outlook
The government performed poorly in 2011, and if surveys were an indication,
more and more are disapproving or dissatisfied with the government's inadequacy
to address gut issues as shown by the November 2011 Pulse Asia survey.
Furthermore, with another full year drawing to a close, people now have a better
appreciation of the government's capabilities and limitations as exemplified by
the way the government managed the economy amid the global crisis, as well as
its role in the enormous loss of human lives in Northern Mindanao.
The global economy is expected to worsen next year to near recession levels;
threatening to put more pressure on the country's shrinking exports, revenue
level, labor requirements, and overall output of about 4.2 percent, as
estimated.
If the Aquino administration would be able to still implement the 2011
infrastructure program, on top of next year's program, it would be a big boost
to the domestic economy.
Chief News Editor: Sol Jose Vanzi
© Copyright, 2012 by PHILIPPINE
HEADLINE NEWS ONLINE
All rights reserved
PHILIPPINE HEADLINE NEWS
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