WILLIAM ESPOSO: THE FIRST BIG NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERN OF
2012
MANILA, JANUARY 4, 2012
(STAR) AS I WRECK THIS CHAIR By William M. Esposo - The
SWS (Social Weather Stations) reported that 95 percent of Filipinos are entering
2012 with hope versus 4 percent who are entering 2012 with fear.
The New Year is always associated with hope but the SWS survey showed a
record high optimism that surpassed previous marks since 2003.
Most significant is that Mindanao and Metro Manila registered a record high
on optimism as well as the Class E (from 89 percent to 93 percent), the poorest
of the poor.
There has to be a political component in that all-time high optimism. Your
Chair Wrecker's assessment is as follows:
1. Filipinos are convinced that reformist President Noynoy Aquino (P-Noy)
will remain steadfast on his campaign promises and bring us to the Promised Land
where every vote is properly counted, where every voice is heard, where every
family eats three nutritious meals a day and send their children to school and
where crooks are in jail and not holding public offices.
2. Seeing the lopsided surveys favoring P-Noy in his initiative to impeach
Supreme Court Chief Justice (CJ) Rene Corona — that also translates to Filipinos
seeing presidential political will to pave DAANG MATUWID (straight path). Many
see justice finally being served to all, including the high and mighty — what
with former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) under hospital arrest,
former Comelec Chairman Ben Abalos under arrest and Retired General Jovito
Palparan now a wanted man.
3. Filipinos are beginning to feel the progress that P-Noy promised.
Unemployment is down to 6.3 percent (from 7.1 percent). There were 75 percent
less strikes in 2011, a phenomenal feat that should attract more investors. The
S & P gave us a credit upgrade — an expression of faith in P-Noy's fiscal
policies. Rice sufficiency will be attained by 2013. While other currencies are
having a roller coaster ride due to the global recession, our Peso has remained
stable at around P43 to US$1. The poor must be feeling already the benefits of
the CCT (Conditional Cash Transfer) Program. In the 18 months of the P-Noy
administration, there have been no scandals like the NBN-ZTE overpriced contract
and the Fertilizer and Chopper scams of the GMA regime.
4. P-Noy's over 70 percent approval and trust ratings after 18 months on the
job underscore the good rapport that he has developed with his "Bosses" — the
Filipino people.
Despite the positive outlook, 2012 could still be a year of frustration for
P-Noy. This is the year when P-Noy hopes to get a better functioning judiciary,
especially the Supreme Court, should the impeachment process succeed. However,
the impeachment trial is fraught with uncertainties that could spawn extreme
political repercussions.
The CJ Rene Corona impeachment trial is to be regarded as the first big
national security concern of 2012.
CJ Corona doesn't have the capability to threaten or topple the P-Noy
government. Outside of his spokesman Midas Marquez and IBP (Integrated Bar of
the Philippines) ally, Roan Libarios, the CJ neither commands a big public
support base nor can he order the police and the army to follow him as their
Commander in Chief.
GMA and her allies cannot also mount a serious destabilization move. In the
December 2011 SWS survey, GMA registered her lowest net trust rating - negative
62 percent. Well versed in intelligence and national security, P-Noy has all
their moves factored and their operatives are being closely monitored. GMA and
her allies cannot mount a coup even if they poured P1billion as incentive.
However, CJ Corona and GMA have the capability to unleash an extreme
situation that could push our country to seek an out-of-the-box solution. We
speak here of an out-of-the-box solution that does not favor the cause of the CJ
and GMA but could lead our country into an unwanted political track.
Filipinos will follow intently the impeachment trial and any unexpected twist
that's perceived as a move to unjustly exonerate the CJ or preempt the
impeachment trial could trigger unsavory reactions beyond the control of the
P-Noy government.
A Supreme Court TRO (Temporary Restraining Order) stopping the impeachment
trial could be that trigger. A Senate acquittal of the CJ that does not conform
to what have been presented in the impeachment trial could provoke a public
outrage similar to what happened in January 2001 during the Joseph Estrada
impeachment trial.
In the impeachment trial, the legal team of the CJ must convincingly debunk
all the articles of the impeachment complaint. Otherwise, Filipinos won't accept
an acquittal verdict.
The Senators (sitting as judges) and the lawyers from both parties should
bear in mind that their arguments must not only be well supported by
jurisprudence but must be able to convince Filipinos — the ultimate jurists of
the trial - to accept their point of view. In this regard, because of what the
various media polls tell us — the bigger burden is placed on the CJ's legal
team.
This row with the Supreme Court is seen by many Filipinos as a struggle to
reform the judiciary, long perceived as a den of corruption where decisions are
for sale. In this impeachment battle, Filipinos see P-Noy as their champion and
CJ Rene Corona as the obstacle to their aspirations.
Chief News Editor: Sol Jose Vanzi
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