TEN YEARS - PAGASA
[PHOTO - DEADLY RIVER A boy carrying his shoes crosses the Kapay
river, one of the three rivers that overflowed during the path of Tropical Storm
"Sendong" in a remote area in Iligan City. Tens of thousands of flood survivors
queued for their Christmas meal in evacuation centers December 25, holiday
spirits doused by thoughts of more than 2,000 dead or missing kin. AFP]
MANILA, DECEMBER 28, 2011 (INQUIRER) By Kristine L. Alave,
TJ Burgonio -
The country hasn't seen the last of extreme weather events.
Climate projections for 2020 and 2050 by the weather bureau are even grimmer:
The dry season would be drier and the wet season would be wetter, and the damage
to crops and water sources would be far-reaching.
Mary Ann Lucille Sering, vice chairperson of the Climate Change Commission
headed by President Benigno Aquino III, said that worst-case projections were
for 2020.
"But the weather is changing now," Sering said in an interview in the
aftermath of the destruction wrought by Tropical Storm "Sendong" in Northern
Mindanao.
"If we say we are racing against time, then technically, we can say that,"
she added.
In fact, the country is in the midst of an environmental turmoil and
politicians should address this with urgency, said Rosa Perez, a climate
scientist at the Manila Observatory.
"They think it is a future problem, but it is happening now," said Perez,
lead author of a UN report on climate change adaptation and sustainability.
Presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda, reacting to a Philippine Daily
Inquirer report that Cabinet officials had failed to heed warnings of an
environmental catastrophe, said that the administration in its early days was
"doing a lot of clearing of the land mines," referring to allegations of
corruption against the previous Arroyo administration.
"The situation right now has made it emphatic for us … as well as for the
local government units to seriously look into the hazard areas," Lacierda said.
During the 2020-2050 period, there would be less rainfall during summer,
"making the usually dry season drier," the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical
and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said in its 2011 report,
"Climate Change in the Philippines."
Rainfall, however, is likely to increase during the rainy season from June to
August, and then from September to November, "making these seasons wetter,"
according to the report released this month.
'Water stress'
Hence, these areas would be hit by droughts and floods, Pagasa said.
Regions or provinces, where rainfall drop is projected, would experience
"water stress" which would adversely impact on agriculture, livelihood, health
and human settlement.
"Large decreases in rainfall and longer drier periods will affect the amount
of water in watersheds and dams which provide irrigation services to farmers,
especially those in rain-fed areas, thereby limiting agricultural production,"
Pagasa said.
Decreased rainfall would also impact on energy power produced by dams, and as
a whole, affect the country's energy sufficiency program. That's why there's a
need to revisit the design of dams to allow them to adapt to the projected
longer drier periods, the weather bureau said.
In areas where rainfall is projected to intensify during wet periods,
flooding could occur and pose danger to homes and infrastructure in geologically
weak areas.
Pagasa projected that rainfall would decrease in most parts of the country
during summer.
Rainfall, however, would increase in most areas of Luzon and Visayas during
the southwest monsoon in the months of June, July and August until September,
October and November, and during the northeast monsoon in December, January and
February, it said.
"Heavy daily rainfall will continue to become more frequent, extreme rainfall
is projected to increase in Luzon and Visayas only, but the number of dry days
is expected to increase in all parts of the country in 2020 and 2050," the
bureau said.
Temperature spike
Pagasa projected that in 2020 and 2050, it would get warmer in the entire
archipelago and more intensely in the summer months.
The bureau said that annual mean temperatures were expected to rise by .9
degrees Celsius to 1.1 degrees in 2020 and by 1.8 degrees to 2.2 degrees in
2050.
The highest temperature spike is projected to occur during summer from March
to April to May. The number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35
degrees Celsius would increase in 2020 and 2050, it said.
"Hot temperatures will continue to become more frequent in the future," the
weather bureau said in the Millennium Development Goal Fund-financed report.
The report will be helpful to local government units because it includes data
on seasonal temperature increases, seasonal rainfall change and total frequency
of extreme events in 2020 and 2050 for all regions and provinces.
To adapt to this, Pagasa proposed a wide range of measures for local
government, including rational management of water, upgrade or rehabilitation of
dams, changes in cropping patterns, setting up rainwater collection facilities
and early warning systems.
The report was prepared by Flaviana Hilario, Thelma Cinco, Rosalina de Guzman
and Emma Ares, all Pagasa climatologists.
Awareness campaign
The climate change projections were based on climate models. To generate
projections of rainfall change and temperature increase in 2020 and 2050, the
team used the regional climate model (RCM) of the Precis (Providing Regional
Climates for Impact Studies).
The RCM was developed by the UK Met Hadley Center to facilitate the impact,
vulnerability and adaptation assessments in developing countries.
Two laws pertaining to the environment were recently enacted—the Philippine
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 and the 18-year National
Climate Change Action Plan, which President Aquino signed last month.
But Sering said the budget for the programs only came this year.
She also said that the programs had yet to be communicated to the majority of
officials at the front line. For example, some local officials who have received
geohazard maps do not understand how to use these, Sering said.
"It's very technical for them. There should be a massive reorientation," she
said. "All of these would be solved if there is political will." With a report
from Norman Bordadora
Originally posted at 07:38 pm | Tuesday, December 27, 2011
TOO MUCH RAIN Floodwaters surprise Consolacion town and Metro
Cebu Cebu Daily News
Water rose chest-high and partly submerged houses in the northern
town of Consolacion, the worst-hit area in reports of flooding in Metro Cebu
after a night of continuous rain.
The Cansaga River overflowed, displacing five barangays and forcing 500
families to evacuate, said Consolacion Mayor Teresita Alegado.
Severe flooding was also reported in parts of cities of Cebu, Mandaue and
Talisay.
Cebu's rainfall yesterday was recorded at 185.4 millimeters or four times
more than the average daily water volume of 50 mm expected in the rainy season
of November to January.
"The volume of rainfall was above normal," said Alice Canasa, weather
specialist of the Philipine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Service
Administration (Pag-asa). (See story on page 2.)
In Mandaue City, 7-year-old Joyn Lloyd Canete went missing after swimming in
the Butuanon River past 12 noon.
Two women in their 80s were killed in Tabogon town, northern Cebu, after
their home was hit by a flash flood, according to the Office of Civil Defense.
"The water rose so fast," said Melchora Inot, a 39-year-old housewife in
sitio Laray, Consolacion town. She recalled the gushing water that entered their
house about 10 p.m. of Monday, forcing the the family to evacuate.
"In our 10 years of living here, we never experienced this kind of flooding
before," she said in Cebuano.
She and her three children evacuated to a chapel in the Pitogo barangay hall.
Sitio Laray used to be classified as a timberland but was cleared and filled
with anapog (limestone) during the term of former mayor Avelino Gungob, said
barangay councilor Bernard Pepito.
Pepito, who lives in one of more than 200 houses in the sitio that went
underwater, said many people bought land there because of the low price of
P1,000 per square meter.
The sitio looked like a fishpond yesterday with knee-deep water entering
houses, a mix of gated concrete residences and houses of light materials.
The water started to rise around 10 p.m. Monday and reached chest level by
midnight.
Elisa Respito, a 37-year-old hotel worker, was shivering atop a cabinet with
her child and sister when help arrived.
A close friend, Emmanuel Belhida, traveled from Cebu City and waded in
chest-high water to bring them food. He said Respito didn't want to relocate
from her low-rent lodging of P200 a month in Laray.
Barangay captain Aquilino Pitogo called an emergency meeting yesterday to use
P20,000 of their calamity fund to budget P500 in relief goods per family.
Starting 11 p.m. Monday, the barangay disaster brigade of Cansaga started
watching the river. As soon as families started evacuating, a barangay patrol
cab went out to rescue residents.
At least 48 families were rescued and evacuated to the barangay hall, the
town's covered court and chapels.
Mayor Alegado said the Cansaga River overflowed, affecting barangays Cansaga,
Lower Nangka, Pitogo, Lower Jugan and Poblacion Oriental.
One family was stranded in the second floor of their house.
Some bridges and footbridges were also damaged, Alegado said the approach of
the Jugan-Tayud bridge also caved-in and needs to be repaired.
In Mandaue City, eight barangays were flooded—Casuntingan, Tingub, Maguikay,
Banilad, Subangdaku, Mantuyong, Guizo and Basak.
The main road in barangay Basak leading to Cebu City was heavily
flooded causing heavy traffic.
A report from the Office of the Civil Defense 7 said four houses were washed
out in Maguikay and nine families in Banilad were also displaced.
In Cebu City, central streets in M.J. Cuenco Avenue, Sanciangko and Bonifacio
were flooded. But water receded after several hours. (See story on page 2.)
Minor landslides were reported in mountain barangays of Busay and Binaliw.
In Mabolo, a low-lying barangay, 100 families were trapped in their houses in
five sitios—San Vicente, San Isidro, New Frontier, Magtalisay and
Lahinglahing—said Cebu City disaster official Alvin Santillan. Water reached
waist level so occupants just stayed at home.
In Talisay City, 20 families voluntarily evacuated in Lawaan 3, said Punlic
information officer Arturo Bas.
Bas said the residents worried that the Mananga River would overflow but it
didn't.
In Lapu-Lapu City, four barangays were hit by floodwater, with the worst felt
in Basak where about 1,500 houses were soaked in hip-deep water.
Basak barangay captain Isabelo Darnayla said the city government is sending
suction pumps to remove the water and that so far his barangay is coping.
Other affected barangays were Pajo, Bangkal, which has about 500 houses, and
barangay Pajak, where Camella Homes, Abuno and Bliss are located.
Elsewhere in Cebu province, 77 individuals were rescued in Carmen town and 18
in Catmon town in the north, 66 in Minglanila town in the south and 85 people in
northwest Asturias, said Neil Sanchez, spokesman of the Regional Disaster Risk
and Management Unit.
Most of the residents were living along the river, although they had long
been warned to move to safer ground. /Jucelle Cuyos and
Jhunnex Napallacan with reports from Carine Asutilla, Candeze Mongaya and Norman
Mendoza
Chief News Editor: Sol Jose Vanzi
© Copyright, 2011 by PHILIPPINE HEADLINE NEWS ONLINE
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rights reserved
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