ANA MARIE PAMINTUAN: WAR FATIGUE
MANILA, SEPTEMBER 2, 2011 (STAR) SKETCHES By Ana Marie Pamintuan - It's good that the travel-averse President Aquino finally pushed through with his trip to China after a year of strains in bilateral ties arising from the Rizal Park hostage crisis, the execution of Filipino drug mules and incidents in the Spratlys.
Dialogue is always better than the exchange of combative rhetoric in resolving conflict, especially between two countries whose shared history dates even farther back than the Philippines' colonial ties. More Pinoys trace their ancestry to China than to America.
Improving relations with Asia's economic powerhouse makes sense. It's sound diplomacy; it's sound economics.
P-Noy's state visit to China won't resolve territorial disputes between the two countries, but it's good for confidence building and establishing goodwill.
Even Washington is pursuing the same tack with China. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and US legislators have issued strong statements against aggressive Chinese military activities in disputed waters. Washington is also supporting a multilateral approach – something that Beijing opposes, but which the Philippines prefers and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has endorsed – and settlement of disputes based on international law.
US officials, however, have also made it clear that they prefer territorial disputes to be settled through peaceful dialogue among the claimants themselves.
Will the United States come to our defense in case of external aggression if we invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty? US Ambassador Harry Thomas Jr., nagged constantly for a categorical statement, told The STAR last June that "we will do whatever we're asked."
Following reports of worrisome incidents earlier this year involving Chinese and Philippine forces and fishermen, the US deployed an aircraft carrier to Manila.
This doesn't mean that the US will readily engage in armed conflict with China in defense of the Philippines. While the US has a long record of assisting its allies, it has its own strategic interests to protect, and is itself pursuing stronger relations with China. Last January, US President Barack Obama rolled out the red carpet in Washington for his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao. Obama's nine-year-old daughter Sasha is taking Chinese language lessons.
After two messy wars, with the US in a deep recession, American taxpayers also have no appetite for getting entangled in another armed conflict.
The director of the East-West Center's Washington office, Satu Limaye, put it to me simply: "We should not be dragged into something we don't wanna be dragged into."
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Limaye's sentiment is reflected in surveys conducted by the Washington-based Pew Research Center.
In a 2004 Pew survey, 44 percent of American respondents said the US should play an active role in world affairs while 49 percent said it should pay less attention to global issues.
A similar survey this year showed only 33 percent saying the US should be active in global affairs and 58 percent saying it should pay less attention to the world.
Asked if America should mind its own business, 37 percent of survey respondents said yes right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 30 percent said yes in 2002, 41 percent in 2009, and 46 percent this year.
In a Pew survey taken from May 25 to 30 this year, 65 percent of respondents said the US should reduce its military commitments overseas.
"I think we're seeing a more inward-looking American public than we've seen in a very long time," Pew survey research director Scott Keeter told Asian journalists during our visit earlier this month in Washington.
A Pew survey taken last June, shortly after al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed, showed 56 percent of Americans wanting their troops to withdraw ASAP from Afghanistan, up from 40 percent in June last year.
"There's definitely war fatigue in the public now," Keeter told us.
The success of NATO operations in assisting rebel forces in Libya, with the US playing merely a supporting role, will also reinforce American sentiment against military engagement overseas.
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I doubt if the Chinese themselves want war. Chinese officials point out that they have prospered in the past 30 years in a peaceful environment, particularly in this part of the world.
"Why would we want to go to war?" a Chinese official asked me recently.
The late Deng Xiaoping, in correcting the mistakes of the Cultural Revolution, studied geopolitical developments and decided that there would be no major wars in the next decades. This would allow China to focus on poverty alleviation and economic development. Deng put his country on the path of capitalism and told his compatriots that to get rich is glorious.
Many Chinese have since become rich, some of them immensely. A widening income gap, particularly between urban and rural dwellers, is now raising concern among Chinese officials about growing social unrest.
In assessing China's economic clout, some US analysts like to cite Japan and previous American fears that the land of the rising sun would soon take over the world. Japan subsequently went into recession and has yet to get out of its economic slump, made worse this year by the earthquake and tsunami.
Chinese officials acknowledge their economic vulnerabilities, particularly with their largest single trading partner, the US, going into recession.
The Chinese are also the first to point out that their military capability is a long way from that of the world's lone superpower.
China has floated its first aircraft carrier, a refurbished vessel obtained from the Ukraine. But both Chinese and US officials point out that the expertise and equipment needed to operate the vessel aren't there. The aircraft carrier is small compared to those of the United States.
According to recent reports, China is also developing stealth capability for its air force, with assistance from the Russians. Chinese officials say any military modernization they are undertaking is meant to make their defense capability commensurate to the size of China and its level of economic development.
US security officials are concerned about freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and are closely watching Chinese activities in the area. US allies are also closely watching these developments for indications of future Chinese behavior on the global stage.
Like the US, however, all of these countries are also pursuing closer ties with China, especially in economic matters.
The Philippines has everything to gain in doing the same.
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Chief News Editor: Sol Jose Vanzi
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