STAR: REFORM AGENDA
MANILA, JANUARY 10, 2011 (PHILSTAR) SKETCHES By Ana Marie Pamintuan - President Aquino, basking in his high ratings after six months in office, opened the year on a pugnacious note, hitting the "noisy minority" in his first New Year reception for the diplomatic community.
The minority in the House of Representatives took offense, but I don't think P-Noy was referring mainly to the political minority, which hasn't really managed to stand in the way of his reforms. It hasn't been unusually noisy either, with its titular head, former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, keeping her mouth shut.
What P-Noy has been griping about (apart from carping critics in the Senate and media), both in private and openly, as the biggest hindrance to his reform agenda is the judiciary – specifically, the Supreme Court and his bete noire, Chief Justice Renato Corona.
Some quarters think P-Noy's problem is not Corona and his court but mediocre legal advisers. So far P-Noy doesn't seem to think so; he looks happy with his legal team. One indication is that the chief troubleshooter he is officially bringing in by June is not a lawyer but a banker and economist: his defeated running mate Mar Roxas.
The other story is that Roxas is bringing in his legal team, whose advice P-Noy will take, making the ex-future president the de facto "Little President."
Roxas' entry has been expected since Day One of the new administration, although in what capacity no one can be certain until P-Noy signs the appointment. But the announcement of Roxas' looming appointment is already threatening to create the kind of infighting that could prove as detrimental to P-Noy's agenda as the "noisy minority."
Already the factions in the corridors of power are sharpening their claws for battle. If P-Noy doesn't keep the infighting under control, it could adversely affect his governance, as it already has in the past six months.
Filipino patience with a new administration tends to start wearing thin within 12 to 18 months. Even Corazon Aquino's performance rating skidded to the pits in her third year in office. Philippine presidents can only dream that they can be like Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who stepped down after eight years in power on the first day of 2011 with a dizzying popularity rating of 87 percent.
P-Noy has a brief period during which he can capitalize on his popularity to rein in the warring camps in his official family, rethink his legal moves and push through difficult reforms.
At last week's vin d'honneur, P-Noy promised all those who continued to keep faith in him (as indicated in surveys) that he would not frustrate their hopes for a better life this year.
Projections of economic analysts for 2011 give him a good chance of delivering on his promise. The economy is expected to grow faster this year. Response to the country's global bonds, developed by the government together with financial engineers of Citibank, has been impressive. And P-Noy's reputation for integrity continues to generate international goodwill that could bring in much needed job-generating investments.
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The Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines has submitted to the government 471 recommendations to double GDP growth in three years, and target $7.5 billion in annual foreign direct investment and $100 billion in exports.
"Catching up and keeping up is an imperative, not a choice," according to the foreign chambers in their 421-page proposal, "Arangkada Philippines 2010: A Business Perspective." Arangkada means to accelerate.
The Joint Foreign Chambers has 2,000 members belonging to the chambers of commerce of Australia-New Zealand, Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea and the United States as well as the Philippine Association of Multinational Companies Regional Headquarters Inc.
"Arangkada" was the result of nine focus group discussions, chaired by an industry expert who supervised research and coordinated with the government, local business, and advocates of economic reform.
I have been meaning to write about the proposals since the start of the year, but there are simply too many so I am taking them apart for future commentary on individual aspects.
Before the story becomes stale from retelling (several articles have come out), let me give you some of the highlights:
The foreign chambers believe the country has "Seven Big Winners" that should be the focus of development by the government and concerned sectors. These are agribusiness, information technology-business process outsourcing, creative industries, infrastructure, manufacturing and logistics, mining, and tourism, medical travel and retirement.
The chambers' main point is that the Philippine economy should move twice as fast to compete with its better-achieving neighbors.
Some of the recommendations in "Arangkada" are not new, but were not acted upon in the past because of political considerations and the influence wielded by those who enjoy monopolies in this country.
Those political and monopolistic interests are very much around. It remains to be seen whether P-Noy, a member of the moneyed elite, and his incoming chief troubleshooter, a member of the old rich who is widely believed to be eyeing the presidency in 2016, will be more responsive to the recommendations.
P-Noy can dismiss some of the recommendations the way he dismissed the proposal of the German ambassador to negotiate a settlement of the NAIA-3 dispute: everything will be decided in the interest of the Philippines.
Great sound bite, but in this global village, national interest does not stop at the water's edge. In a global economy, the sentiments of other countries cannot be completely disregarded, especially by a nation that is trying to attract more foreign investors.
Many of the proposals in "Arangkada" are doable without a major disruption of the status quo or risks to the interests of P-Noy's supporters.
But if he can show that there are no sacred cows in his reform agenda, it will produce better results.
He won't even feel bothered by a noisy minority.
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Chief News Editor: Sol Jose Vanzi
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