TYPHOON 'JUAN' INTENSIFIES, ENTERS RP AREA
MANILA, OCTOBER 17, 2010 (BULLETIN) By ELLALYN B. DE VERA and JC BELLO RUIZ - Cyclone "Megi" has intensified into a typhoon as it entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday morning, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said. The weather disturbance is now locally called "Juan."
President Benigno S. Aquino III directed government agencies to ensure that there will be "zero casualties" when potential super typhoon Juan hits the Northern Luzon possibly this Monday.
Robert Sawi, chief of the PAGASA's weather forecasting section, said Juan was located at 810 kilometers (km) east of Northern Luzon, moving west-northwest at a speed of 24 kilometers per hour (kph) as of 5 p.m. on Saturday.
"The weather disturbance moving towards Northern Luzon has intensified into a typhoon when it entered the PAR at 1 a.m. on Saturday, packing maximum sustained winds of 140 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 170 kph," Sawi said during the PAGASA press conference.
He said Juan is expected to make landfall over Cagayan Valley Monday afternoon. However, the effects of the cyclone may be felt as early as Sunday afternoon, particularly in Northern Luzon.
But the storm is not expected to hit Metro Manila hard unless it changes direction unexpectedly.
He advised the public to expect strong winds, floods, storm surge, and landslides, particularly in Cagayan, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur.
"Juan is expected to hit Sta. Ana, Cagayan and areas within the eye of the storm Monday afternoon. It will be crossing Cagayan and Ilocos Norte as it goes toward the South China Sea Tuesday evening," Sawi said.
"If there would be no change in the typhoon's track, Juan will be within the Aparri radar range on Sunday," Sawi said. The radar is essential to estimate the typhoon's amount of rainfall.
Science and Technology Secretary Mario Montejo said based on the satellite images Juan could bring 200 to 250 millimeters of rainfall every six hours.
He also expressed alarm that Juan could still intensify as it closes in on the eastern land mass of Luzon this afternoon.
"From 105 kph of maximum winds on Friday, it is already at 140 kph on Saturday. This could still strengthen to up to 200 kph by Monday," Montejo said.
PAGASA Deputy Administrator for Research and Development Dr. Nathaniel Servando said 200 to 250 millimeters of rainfall can be considered heavy rainfall.
Tropical storm Ondoy dumped 350 to 400 millimeters of rainfall last year, which caused massive flooding in Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Laguna.
"As the typhoon's wind intensifies, the amount of rainfall also increases. We're closely monitoring Juan because it is still far from the country and it already has this large amount of rainfall," Servando said.
This would be the 10th storm this year and the first for this month. PAGASA expects that three to four storms will enter PAR in October, one to two in November, and one to two in December.
The country averages 19 to 20 tropical cyclones in a year. PAGASA recorded only nine tropical cyclones this year due to the previous El Niño event.
PAGASA also warned the public against strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of northeasterly surface wind flow and enhanced by Juan.
Strong to gale force wind is expected to affect the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon.
Fishing boats and other small seacraft were advised not to venture out into the sea, while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves.
Montejo advised the public to continue monitoring the typhoon development through the Department of Science and Technology's (DoST) website http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or through its Twitter account @dost_pagasa.
In July, typhoon "Conson" killed 102 people. It unexpectedly changed direction and sliced through Manila, cutting power across the sprawling metropolis of 12 million people, prompting President Benigno Aquino to sack the chief weather forecaster.
Conson, locally called "Basyang," destroyed or damaged about P377 million worth of infrastructure and crops, including 86,000 metric tons of rice, corn and vegetables.
Typhoon "Ketsana," known locally as "Ondoy," dumped record rain in Sept 2009 on the capital region and nearby areas, killing 277 people, making tens of thousands homeless and causing more than $100 million of damage to crops, infrastructure and property.
More prepared Still reeling from a costly forecast blunder committed by PAGASA when Basyang devastated Metro Manila in the early days of his presidency last July, President Aquino vowed a better prepared government in mitigating the risks of a weather disturbance this time around.
"Let us all work together to ensure zero casualties for the coming typhoon," he ordered concerned government agencies last Friday night.
"We are confident that PAGASA and the DoST (Department of Science and Technology) will continue to provide timely and useful information to the public," he said.
Aquino instructed the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) and all relevant authorities "to take down billboards until the typhoon is over."
He stressed that he does not want "to unduly alarm the public, but there is nothing lost by being prepared."
"I ask our countrymen in affected areas to cooperate with their barangay, municipal, provincial, and national officials in ensuring orderly and efficient preparations. The private sector, too, can alert their employees, particularly those who are (Philippine) Red Cross volunteers, to be ready to help, when needed. Let us all do our part to ensure that we remain focused on proactive measures to reduce risk to populations. And I am confident our government will, once again, work hand-in-hand with the citizenry to bring out the best in all of us as we brace for the coming storm," he added.
He said that Benito Ramos of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has reported that the agency is now ready for possible preemptive evacuations in affected areas.
Deputy Presidential Spokesperon Abigail Valte appealed to the public to be prepared for Juan.
On alert In preparation for the typhoon, Lt. Col. Edgard Arevalo, Philippine Navy Public Affairs Office (NPAO) director, said all concerned Navy disaster response task groups, particularly at the Naval Forces Northern Luzon, Naval Forces Southern Luzon, and Fleet-Marine Force with jurisdiction over Metro Manila have been placed on alert and are closely monitoring latest updates and developments with the super typhoon.
Ramos said emergency and disaster response teams of the Philippine Army, Air Force, the Philippine National Police (PNP), Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), and the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) in Luzon and the Metro Manila are now also on alert.
A report by the NDRRMC also said 13,928 food packs worth more than P2.2 million and other food and non-food items worth over P46 million have been prepositioned by the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) in regions 1, 2, 3, 4A, 4B, 5, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and National Capital Region (NCR), aside from standby funds of R2.7 million as part of the preparations.
Ramos said the DSWD has likewise alerted its 464 quick response teams, 186 social welfare and development (SWAD) teams, and 438 volunteers in the concerned regions.
He also said that the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) has activated its regional and provincial operations centers.
PCG warning The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) warned the maritime industry on Saturday not to disregard restrictions imposed on sea vessels whenever there is a public storm warning as Typhoon "Juan" (international codename: Megi) continued to move along the direction of Northern Luzon.
The PCG said Memorandum Order 01-09, also known as the "Guidelines on Movement of Vessels during Heavy Weather," will be observed strictly.
Lt. Cmdr. Armando Balilo, PCG Public Information Officer and deputy chief of staff for community relations, said they would not hesitate to revoke the skipper's license and the vessel's franchise if the vessel attempts to sail in areas under public storm warnings. (With reports from Elena L. Aben and John Carlo M. Cahinhinan)
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